2024 Harvest Forecast

 Summer, unbearably hot, like all the last few years – or, perhaps, like all the past years – temperatures have reached such high levels as to cool any past summer record. Summer, no less, is also that critical season in which much of the work and hopes of those who work in agriculture are realized, in a very fragile meteorological balance capable of determining the outcome of the entire working year. Punctually, in summer, the topic of climate change returns – in truth, in recent times, it has been a topic all year round – trying to justify, as much as possible, the incredible increase in summer temperatures compared to the past. The sun, undoubtedly, is indispensable to the activity of any plant organism, just as are other meteorological events, including humidity and the availability of water, especially that which constitutes the very precious water reserves of the subsoil.

 At this time, grape harvesting in Italy, as well as in other wine-growing countries in Europe, has already begun for over a month now and – according to statements by winemakers and trade associations – will be remembered for being among the earliest in recent years. According to estimates by Coldiretti – an Italian association of farmers – the 2024 grape harvest began as early as two weeks in advance, especially in southern Italy, because of the effects of high temperatures and the lack of rain, factors that accelerated the ripening of the grapes. The early start of the grape harvest in Italy is the result, of course, of the meteorological and climatic trend of 2024, which began with decidedly unusual temperatures and higher than the seasonal average. This favored the resumption of the vegetative cycle of the vine and the consequent development, anticipating the budding by about a week compared to what was recorded on average in past years. This condition becomes decidedly critical in case the spring weather conditions become adverse, in particular the sudden drop in temperature.

 According to Coldiretti, the 2024 harvest in Italy will certainly be remembered as the one with the greatest unknowns in recent years, since – in the general picture of the country – the conditions are different in each region. It is not, therefore, a matter of the very early start of the harvest, which will inevitably go on for about four months, due to the huge biodiversity characterizing Italy, including the different styles of wines produced. It must in fact be considered that, in Italy, from North to South, wine production begins with sparkling wines up to the sweet ones from dried grapes, passing through whites, reds, rosés and, last but not least, late harvests. This means that the harvest operations begin as soon as the grapes are ripe depending on the style and variety – the first are always the sparkling wines – often until after November, when the dried grapes are harvested for the production of sweet wines.

 The weather conditions and the progress of the season have determined – this is what Coldiretti said – a clear division between the Northern and Southern regions. In the South of Italy, it is the drought that is causing the most concern, despite – it seems – the vines, in general terms, have managed to face the difficult condition, while the high temperatures have blocked the development of downy mildew. It will be remembered, in this regard, that last year, this very disease caused such extensive damage that it reduced wine production by as much as 11 million hectoliters. In the South of Italy, a harvest of excellent quality grapes is expected, trusting in the arrival of rain, which would ensure a further increase in quality. The situation is very different in the North of Italy where the fate of the vineyards has mainly depended on bad weather, with cloudbursts and hailstorms, events that are certainly not positive in this period of the year and in which the harvest takes place.

 Lombardy – because of the weather – has already announced that the 2024 harvest will probably be 15% lower than last year. In this region, in fact, there was heavy rain, especially during spring and early summer. Added to this were hailstorms, with the consequent development of fungal diseases that forced vintners to intervene in the vineyards with appropriate phytosanitary treatments. Despite these inconveniences, Lombardy is still expecting a quality grape harvest, while maintaining a certain caution on the quantity, also in consideration of the weather trend in September, which is currently unpredictable. According to what was declared by the vintners themselves and their trade associations, the management of the vineyard during 2024 has led to an increase in costs due to the necessary treatments in the vineyard, which will inevitably affect the final price of the wine.

 The same consideration was also made by the vintners of southern Italy, who – so they report - due to the drought conditions and the excessive increase in temperatures, had to resort to appropriate preventive measures. Also in this case, the costs incurred for the management of the vineyard will affect the final price of the wine. As a result of these considerations, it therefore seems inevitable, for the 2024 vintage wines, a final increase in the selling price to the detriment – evidently – of consumers. Exactly as declared by the producers of northern Italy, those of the south also affirm that the quality of the grapes is excellent and high. In short, for the 2024 vintage we will have excellent wines and most likely more expensive. Furthermore, everyone agrees that, due to the unpredictable and unusual weather conditions of recent years, vine cultivation forces vintners to face new challenges every year in Italy, with rapid interventions in the vineyard and not always easy to manage or implement.

  Apparently, Italy is not the only one complaining about the difficulties in the vineyard. In France, again due to the climatic and meteorological conditions of 2024, a significant drop in wine production is expected, so much so that a loss of as high as 16% is estimated compared to 2023 and -3% of the average harvest of the last five years. These estimates suggest that, in France, wine production for 2024 should be between 40 and 43 million hectoliters. These estimates – for what it is worth – could hand over the primacy of wine production to Italy, lost in 2023 to France. The situation is completely different in Spain, where an increase of 20% is expected, with total production estimated at 39.7 million hectoliters. The climatic and meteorological conditions of recent years are undeniably forcing the wine world to face new and important challenges, forcing vintners to think about and implement new strategies and cultivation techniques, which are becoming more and more critical every year. If we also add to this the widespread decline in per capita wine consumption, an uncertain future also looms in terms of marketing. Let us take, however and in any case, the positive side of the current forecasts which give us hope for a 2024 vintage of high and excellent quality. This – for all of us who continue to love and appreciate wine – is certainly the best news, with our glasses already ready to welcome the new wines and how much the 2024 vintage will be able to give to our emotions and our pleasure.