The Future of European Wine

 Wine is not going through a particularly favorable period, we have all known this for several months now. For a long time, in fact, the statistics and results relating to the production and marketing of wine, particularly in Europe, have been showing – so to speak – a gloomy picture characterized by important signs of crisis or recession. A condition that had already been highlighted in recent months by the short-term report published by the European Commission and in which it was highlighted, nevertheless, a future not exactly favorable for wine. Certainly determined by the economic conditions of recent years, no less, by the change in habits and preferences of consumers, certainly also conditioned by the policies undertaken at Community level on raising awareness of the consumption of alcoholic beverages. Furthermore, as a consequence of the orientation of the European Union, the reports published on the trend and forecast of wine production would seem, so to speak, foregone, with results that, perhaps, were no less hoped for.

 On December 11, the Directorate-General for Agriculture and Rural Development of the European Commission published a forecast document for the next decade, covering the entire agricultural and production industry, including wine. What emerges from this document – and as already anticipated last spring – is the slow but unstoppable decline of wine, both in terms of consumption and production, and in marketing. The report, which, given the current trend of the wine industry in Europe, is certainly plausible, predicts a continuous and inexorable decline until 2035, with widespread drops in terms of consumption, production and market. Among the main causes of the decline, the European Commission report indicates the habit of young people to consume less alcoholic beverages and their presumed orientation towards healthier behaviors, more interested in drinks with little or no alcohol.

 Furthermore, the report also highlights the clear change in habits and occasions for consuming wine, which is increasingly less consumed at home and, when it does happen, it is done in social contexts, such as in restaurants and wine bars. This habit does not only concern young consumers but also adults and the elderly, since it is – so to speak – a social and cultural change, a phenomenon that concerns practically all the main European wine-producing countries. In this regard, it is interesting to note the increase in consumption, albeit marginal, by consumers in some countries not traditionally linked to wine consumption, such as the Czech Republic, Poland and Sweden. Furthermore, a clear change in consumer preferences is expected for the next decade, with a general decline in red wines and the consequent growth of young and easy-to-drink wines, particularly sparkling wines. Moreover, a growing increase in wine-based beverages is expected, especially those produced with dealcoholized wines, although with a decidedly marginal production volume.

 Over the next decade, therefore, a decline in wine consumption is expected to be -1% per year with an annual per capita consumption of approximately 19.8 litres, compared to 22.3 in the period 2020-2024. No substantial changes are expected in other areas of wine usage – such as distillation and transformation into other products – estimated at approximately 30 million hectolitres per year. The contraction in consumption in Europe, as well as exports, combined with competition from other countries, will determine a drop in production of 0.7% per year until reaching 140 million hectolitres in 2035. These estimates – as indicated in the report – assume stable weather and climate conditions, however they could be different depending on the specific conditions of each individual territory. In this regard, it must be said that – in general terms – European producers have already shown excellent ability to adapt as a result of climate change in recent years, therefore it is not excluded that they will be able to do the same in the coming years.

 As already mentioned, the forecasts of the report published by the European Commission also outline a decidedly negative future for wine exports and imports. In this regard, it should be noted that these two areas of marketing have been suffering from a situation that is not exactly positive for some years now. As is known, immediately after the COVID-19 pandemic period, wine exports benefited from a substantial recovery until 2022. In the last two years, also due to the change in consumer habits and the concomitant condition of excess stocks in wineries, export levels are currently declining and, according to this report, the trend will be confirmed in the coming years. The excess stocks will inevitably also affect wine imports, which are expected to decline as well. Therefore, for the next decade, the European Commission report predicts a decline in exports of 1.2% per year and 2.7% in imports.

 The same report also signals an uncertain future for the entire agrifood industry, predicting the major critical issues related to climate change, the availability and consumption of essential natural resources, such as water and soil. These factors are expected to limit the development and yields of crops, while climate change could move agrifood activities towards Northern Europe, with inevitable negative consequences for the areas currently committed to this activity. These changes will inevitably force the study and adoption of new cultivation practices, in addition to crop selection. Viticulture will also inevitably be involved in these changes, in addition to the widespread and progressive decrease in consumption. The next ten years – apparently – will certainly be difficult and complicated for the entire European agrifood industry, predicting, no less, an inexorable decline of wine in every regard.

 The current situation certainly makes one think of the need for a change or, better said, an adaptation of the production and commercial cycle that, perhaps, will inevitably lead to a radical change in wine compared to how we know it today and, I would add, how it has always been. The first of these, also in consideration of the current orientation of young consumers – that is, those who will determine the market in the coming years – is the alcohol content of wines that, very likely, will be destined to decrease in order to meet the new market needs, until becoming totally dealcoholized. A prospect, this, which certainly does not excite me, hoping that at least they will have the decency and good taste not to call it wine. If we then add the legal provisions that are progressively being introduced and that – as a matter of fact – discourage the consumption of wine, producers will inevitably be forced to create alcohol-free products also to counter the growing competition from alternative drinks and that are already enjoying considerable success. Perhaps the producers, exasperated by the continuous legal restrictions and the increasingly critical conditions of production and marketing, in ten years will have all converted their activity to the production of something else. And again in ten years, who knows, we will think back with affection and nostalgia to these times when wine still existed, while sipping a healthy glass of water. Trusting that, in ten years, there will still be some to drink.